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Mar 16, 2023

Debt ceiling winners: Vulnerable lawmakers can relax as issue is defused

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios With the debt ceiling debate behind them for

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

With the debt ceiling debate behind them for another two years, vulnerable lawmakers in swing districts — from both parties — are breathing a sigh of relief.

Why it matters: Both sides risked potential backlash from their respective ideological flanks, but many feel they came out with a compromise that projects serious governance and puts them on a stronger political footing.

Go deeper: Debt ceiling fights carry monumental political and financial peril, something many lawmakers fear would be heightened in the heat of an election year.

Details: The bill House Republicans passed in April — the Limit, Save, Grow Act — would have lifted the debt ceiling by $1.5 trillion or until March 2024, dropping the issue into the heart of the 2024 primary calendar.

What they're saying: "One critical piece in the deal that is not being looked at as a positive for the Democrats, but I view it as a tremendous positive and a win ... is that we're raising the debt ceiling for two years," said Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.).

By the numbers: Congress hasn't taken a vote to raise or suspend the debt ceiling in an election year since 2014. The last time it took one in a presidential election year was 2012.

Reality check: The House campaign committees targeted their rivals over debt ceiling votes — Democrats hitting Republicans on voting to cut benefits for veterans, Republicans hitting Democrats for opposing any spending cuts — but there's little expectation these votes will be major factors in the 2024 campaign messaging.

The intrigue: Moskowitz, who won by just 5 points in 2022, said he does plan to incorporate the debt ceiling into his campaign message — arguing a vote for Democrats is a "vote for normalcy" on the issue.

The bottom line: Historically, big compromises between a Democratic president and conservative Congress benefit the incumbents.